Sunday 11 November 2012

China and India - Apple and Orange


This week China got its new leader selected (read chosen). Though everybody is talking how challenging the
term will be for Mr. Xi, how it has become much better than India in a few years in terms of growth and how
Mr. Hu has made China the biggest Asian Economy, in my opinion it is never too challenging for a country like China. In a country which has a single leader and can impose any decision he or she takes without needing anyone's approval, it becomes lot easier than a country like India. People also talk about how China has moved so much faster than India and India can't even imagine to catch it with its problems like infrastructure, red tape, low human development indices etc. I really want to pose some questions to those people. One is how easy is it for a country like India to implement any decision which is floated by its ruling party, let alone the leader? Then,How can we be so sure about the red tapism in China? Recently the "Doing Business Report" said that India is even below many developing countries. In Human Development Index India has ranked low. I am not saying India has nothing to improve and it is at its best. My point is that India is an open country, more open than many democracies. Media is quite open and every information which anyone knows, ends up with everyone. From what I have heard and read, China blocks any information from internet which it thinks can threaten its economy (read, leaders) and the situation of people in China, especially in manufacturing sector is quite bad (remember, China is mostly manufacturing based economy). So, I don’t quite understand how China scores better than India on so many fronts keeping in mind the opaqueness its economy and people have. There are no doubt that there are multiple benefits of having a single leader but the benefits of democracy for its people at large cannot be argued.
Comparing India with China is like comparing apple with oranges. Though both are fruits and you can discuss which one will be better for which condition, it is difficult to compare the growth and people.

Thursday 1 November 2012

RIL - Risk or Benefit?

The new "revelation" by Arvind Kejriwal that Congress and BJP both work for RIL and have given the organization considerable benefits. Two arguments are given for the same. One is that, RIL is not producing 80 Million Metric Standard Cubic Metre Per Day [mmscmd] gas as per the agreement. The second is that the price for gas was increased from initially decided $2.4 per Million Metric British Thermal Units to $4.25. Though there have been some differences from what was initially decided with RIL there are multiple issues when it comes to a project like gas exploration. It is high risk, long gestation period and very high fixed/sunk cost activity. Such projects are high risk not only in terms of manpower usage but also that after years of investment and exploration, one may not find substantial amount of natural gas. Such risks are carried by the exploration firm and would not be compensated when such thing happens. Not that KG Basin is successful, obviously RIL would be earning a lot of money at such prices decided. But it is also true that a private firm has not decided to become part of such work for philanthropic purposes and expects high gains. Also, high gains come with high risks and someone who has taken risks should be compensated with high returns (as the risk-return theorem says). Asking RIL to sell the gas at very low price would not make any sense because it is RIL which has incurred the costs and taken risks. I am not saying that KG Basin has become RIL's property now and it can charge the any amount that it wants to but should be properly compensated for the risk and costs incurred.

Inertia to spend more money affecting reforms in India?

The UPA Govt is on reforms spree. The LPG and diesel prices, FDI in retail, insurance etc etc. It was long expected and a welcome step. Business Houses and bourses took it very positively day it was announced. The middle class has had mix response. Some people were happy that Govt has taken positive steps for the economy. Some have been critical on the fact that already burdened under high inflation the high prices of LPG (also limiting number of subsidized cylinders to 6 per family) and diesel will be a big pressure on them. People who have their retails shops are also threaten with opening up on FDI in retail.
There are 2 category affected from these reforms. For FDI reforms, one , there are people who are only consumers and the others who are consumers as well as sellers (shop owners). Then in the other category, for LPG and diesel reforms, there are those who are poor and really would be highly affected or would suffer. Then there is middle class and upper middle class who have this habit of living in this subsidized world and though can afford these changes but are not mentally prepared.
In the first category, consumers welcome the retail opening up and sellers are opposed to it. Obviously there are impacts to these mom and pop stores because of FDI in retail. People have more options, they are choosing from shops and buying has increased and money is been divided between different sellers. but saying that such steps would stop the charm of local sellers and brands is baseless. Taking an example of Delhi, the markets of Chandani Chowk for clothes, Khari Bawli for masalas, markets of Lajpat and Sarojini Nagar, Connaught Place and many other wholesale markets are still very famous. The idea is to give consumer something extra in design or less in prices.
For the second category, as already mentioned, as people those who can afford but have the habit of living in subsidised world, easy prices, not getting exposed to world prices, we have assumed it to be our right and we dont want to move to higher prices, No matter how much we talk and discuss that there are no reforms, Govt. is not working etc etc.
I am not sure how much of India's population is financially ready for these changes but we sure are not mentally ready for this and we never will be, until imposed upon us.